One of Nick Winter’s key lessons on motivation is the idea of the 'expectancy factor.'
It’s rooted in a simple but powerful idea:
People often fail to stick with new habits or goals because deep down, they believe they’ll NOT succeed.
This lack of confidence stems from past failures, and it creates a vicious cycle—each unsuccessful attempt reinforces the expectation of future failure.
Breaking Down the Expectancy Factor
Nick explains that when people set ambitious goals, like exercising regularly or learning a new language, they often start with excitement.
But the moment things get difficult—when progress feels slow, or they encounter setbacks—they begin to doubt their ability to succeed.
That self-doubt makes it harder to stay motivated, creating an internal resistance that builds over time.
Eventually, many give up altogether.
Nick refers to this resistance as a product of our internal "base rate" of success.
If, historically, you've failed to follow through on your goals, your brain expects the same outcome for any new challenge.
It’s a natural psychological barrier, but it’s one we can overcome with the right strategies.
Small Wins, Big Momentum
To combat this self-defeating cycle, Nick advocates for starting with small, easily achievable goals.
These "micro-goals" might seem trivial—writing a single sentence instead of a chapter, or exercising for just five minutes instead of an hour—but they serve a greater purpose.
Each small success builds a foundation of confidence, shifting your internal narrative.
The more you succeed at small tasks, the more your brain recalibrates its expectations.
You go from thinking, “I can’t do this,” to “I’ve done this before, and I can do it again.”
Nick uses the analogy of success spirals:
As you accumulate small wins, they reinforce a belief in your ability to achieve more.
Over time, this belief snowballs, making larger goals feel not only possible but inevitable.
The expectation of success becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Practical Example: The Gym and New Year’s Resolutions
Nick highlights New Year’s resolutions as a classic example of the expectancy factor at play.
Every January, gyms fill with people determined to turn over a new leaf.
But within weeks, attendance plummets.
Why?
Many people walk into the gym with the baggage of previous failed attempts to get fit.
Their default expectation is failure, and this undermines their ability to stick with the habit.
Nick suggests reframing the approach to fitness—or any goal—by starting with micro-commitments.
Instead of declaring, “I’m going to exercise every day for an hour,” set a goal like, “I’ll do five push-ups today.”
This approach is so manageable that it feels almost silly to fail, and achieving it builds the confidence to keep going.
Success Spirals in Action
Nick ties the expectancy factor to his own life by sharing how he overcame similar challenges.
During his Motivation Hacker experiment, he tackled seemingly impossible goals—learning to throw knives, running a four-hour marathon, and even writing a book while managing a startup.
He didn’t jump into these goals all at once.
Instead, he built momentum by starting small, setting milestones he knew he could hit, and gradually scaling up his efforts.
For example, when he decided to write a book, he didn’t commit to writing entire chapters in one sitting.
He started by setting aside a small block of time each day to jot down ideas, outline sections, and write a few paragraphs.
As he consistently met these smaller goals, his confidence grew, and so did his output.
Over time, the idea of finishing the book felt not just realistic but inevitable.
Expectancy Factor Takeaways
- Start Small: Set goals that are so manageable they feel impossible to fail. The goal isn’t to achieve something massive on day one but to create a pattern of consistent wins.
- Build Success Spirals: Each small victory reinforces your belief in your ability to succeed, creating a momentum that carries you to larger accomplishments.
- Reframe Failure: Instead of seeing setbacks as proof you can’t succeed, view them as part of the process. Each step forward—even a small one—chips away at the default expectation of failure.
- Focus on Inputs, Not Outcomes: Rather than fixating on the long-term result (e.g., losing 30 pounds), focus on short-term actions you can control (e.g., going for a 10-minute walk today). Success in executing the actions builds confidence over time.
By leveraging the expectancy factor, Nick Winter transformed how he approached productivity and personal growth.
His story serves as a reminder that confidence isn’t something you start with—it’s something you build through consistent, intentional action.
This post was inspired by Unleashing Motivation and Productivity Hacks with Nick Winter YouTube video.
